- Article - Ahrefs Research
A new Ahrefs study of 300,000 U.S. desktop search queries finds that Google’s generative AI summaries, now branded AI Overviews, are already depressing organic traffic in a measurable way.
Key findings
| Metric | March 2024 (pre‑roll‑out) | March 2025 (post‑roll‑out) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. position‑1 CTR for all informational keywords | 5.6 % | 3.1 % | –45 % |
| Avg. position‑1 CTR for keywords that now show an AI Overview | 7.3 % | 2.6 % | –64 % |
By projecting how the second group would have performed without an AI panel (using the general CTR decline as a yardstick), Ahrefs estimates that the presence of an AI Overview lowers the top result’s clicks by ~ 34.5 %.
How Ahrefs arrived at the numbers
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Keyword sample: 150 k informational keywords that trigger an AI Overview plus 150 k similar informational keywords that do not.
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Data source: Aggregated Google Search Console click & impression data (desktop).
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Time frame: Comparison between March 2024 (before the U.S. launch) and March 2025 (after nationwide availability).
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Forecasting drop: The general CTR decline among informational queries (0.056 → 0.031) was applied to the pre‑roll‑out CTR for the AI‑Overview group to create a “no‑AI” benchmark (0.040). The actual post‑AI CTR (0.026) is 34.5 % lower than that benchmark.
Why it matters
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Zero‑click searches multiply: Like Featured Snippets, AI Overviews satisfy more queries directly in the SERP, shrinking the incentive to click through.
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Google’s optimism lacks transparency: Although Sundar Pichai claimed links inside AI Overviews “get higher click‑through rates,” Search Console still doesn’t break out impressions or clicks for the new panel, making publishers fly blind.
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Future CTR could fall further: Ahrefs warns the current figures may represent the high‑water mark; as users grow accustomed to the feature, the “law of shitty click‑throughs” suggests engagement will continue to erode.
Bottom line: Unless Google changes how it attributes (and reports) traffic from AI Overviews, expect a continuing squeeze on organic clicks, roughly one in every three visits to page‑one winners is already gone.